If the truth be told, most people don’t understand the mathematics behind sports-betting. Putting odds to a team’s chance should be left to betting professionals who have deeper knowledge. Nevertheless, that doesn’t stop anyone from making money from gambling by using more simplistic methods. Match-betting, arbitrage, value-betting, or trading fits into this category because the only thing that needs to be understood is the numbers. We discuss that even some basic understanding is needed, these 10 pitfalls to make it pay!
BEING COMPULSIVE OR GREEDY
We have known many potentially good gamblers fail because they are compulsive or greedy. They just don’t have control of the situation, and that brings us on to a short story:
One of our informants is highly knowledgeable about horse racing. He gets loads of info from people on the inside, and when he’s given a strong bet it usually wins. Profits from these bets are over 150%, but unfortunately, he doesn’t benefit. You see, he’s both compulsive and greedy, and always wants more. He takes those winnings and carries on betting anything and everything? At the end of the day, bookmakers get it all back with interest, and he finishers up skint!
TAKING THE WRONG ODDS
Don’t let anyone tell you differently, professional betting is all about obtaining the required odds. If a pro gambler is out to get minimum odds of 2.10, they won’t bet at anything lower. Professional gamblers understand that the bottom line (return on investment) is affected by the odds taken, and it’s their job to get the best price possible.
Let us consider a hypothetical scenario with some simple numbers. If a pro gambler makes 100 bets per month with an average 5% ROI, 100 staked on each (10,000 total stakes) would win 500 (100*5 = 500). Keeping it simple, let’s say 50% of the bets won, and the other 50% lost. To win 5% the odds would need to average 2.10 (50 winners * odds 2.10 = 105).
If getting lower average odds of 2.05 (50*2.05 = 102.5), the ROI would drop to 2.5%. However, if getting 2.12 (50*2.12 = 106), the ROI would increase to 6%. At odds 2.15 (50*2.15 = 107.5) the ROI would grow to 7.5%, and at 2.20 the ROI is 10%. Do the exercise because you need to understand the bottom line is changed by the obtained odds!
Do not take lower odds!
When everyone is chasing the same bet, it’s inevitable what’s going to happen. Odds are forced down when bookmakers respond to the weight of money being bet. From the bookmaker’s perspective, risk management is a protection mechanism!
On that note, when a well-known tipster releases a bet, bookmakers are likely to respond at the earliest opportunity. The reason is they have been forewarned where the money will be heading, and they know the majority of punters will accept lower odds.
Many punters are conned by dropping odds. Some believe it’s a tip and jump on the bandwagon, they don’t realise they are being sold short. As a punter with a different opinion, a herd mentality can work in your favour. The market often overreacts, and then you can find even more value by swimming against the current!
The message is don’t make public bets unless of course, you can get the opening odds and sell-on at lower. We all know what happens to sheep, they follow each other into the slaughterhouse.
Losers will find bookmakers are extremely loyal, whereas winners will have the opposite experience! If you are profiting regularly, soft bookmakers will soon limit or close your betting account. Pro gamblers find bookies normally start with removing bonus offers, or best odds guaranteed. If you are still winning they lower limits, or close the account citing ‘’not commercially viable’’. Losing punters get VIP status, birthday presents, and enticed into betting more. Bookmakers are bastards, that’s all you need to know!
In any case, under no circumstances should you be betting with just one single bookmaker. Internet betting removes boundaries, and punters can go shopping where they get the best offer (odds). Think of betting like you would when buying anything online, in that you want the best deal possible!
In short, the more online betting accounts you have, the more you will be able to shop around for the best odds. Improve your bottom line through choice!
NO STRATEGY – GET A LIFE
Imagine the scenario, you bet 100 and win 100. You do the same again, and win again! This carries on for three more wins, and you start thinking I’m invincible! Your confidence increases, but then you bet 500 on a loser. Wow, those five winning bets have all been canceled out by one loser, what a plonker!
We were once contacted by a person who had taken a starting sum of 1500 to over 40,000 by simply going all-in on short-priced favourites. He would bet teams like Barcelona, Real Madrid, Bayern, and Ajax at odds of around 1.12 with the whole of his betting bank, and it went well for the best part of 18 months. That was until Barcelona could only draw, and he lost the whole lot. It was the 2nd time he had done the same, but at least the bookmaker sent him free Arsenal tickets!!
Betting strategies are a subject within themselves, we have it covered in a different blog!
Having an opinion about everything is not necessarily good! Some people convince themselves they are invincible, but the truth is they are just chancers. Being right all the time is impossible, it’s best to keep a distance from such people.
Ever been in a betting shop or forum and heard stupid statements? One I heard was Barcelona is 10,000% guaranteed to win, and you can put your mortgage on them! They drew 2-2, but not to worry because the next 10,000% was playing later that day!
Professional sports betting isn’t about guessing, it’s about the maths and doing things right. Be analytical in your approach, it will help you become a better gambler.
If the law forces you to pay betting taxes on stakes or winnings, maybe betting isn’t a good idea. If you are in a jurisdiction that doesn’t allow betting, take into consideration you won’t have any legal footing if the bookmaker doesn’t pay.
Many countries require bookmakers to be licensed locally, and the law restricts citizens from placing bets in other jurisdictions. At the end of the day, it’s important to be realistic because being in the wrong place is counterproductive.
Before deciding if you can make it as a professional gambler, we would recommend doing your exploration! What you are looking for is the potential to bet with high-value bookmakers, while knowing you are within the law.
Ask yourself this, do you bet on stuff just for the sake of it? What about if you are losing, do you chase losses? And, what about if you are winning, do you always want more? If the answer to any of these is yes, you are unlikely to have enough discipline for professional betting!
Changing habits isn’t easy, so you need to be realistic on that score. With that said, if you understand a line needs to be drawn under every bet made, maybe you are disciplined enough to succeed!
Bets will both win and lose, but when one is finished you need to move on. Many punters spend too long crying over spilled milk, dwelling on the past is not good!
The point, emotions have no place in betting. While you can change the future, you can’t change the past!
FORUMS – DON’T GET EGGED ON
Not all betting forums are bad, but they are frequented by losing punters. If you are visiting Betting Forums just for the banter, that’s fine if you are taking it with a pinch of salt. However, if you are easily egged-on and believe what you read, then it’s time to move on!.
In short, don’t let others talk you into bad habits!
TIPSTER & BOOKMAKER WEBSITES
If a betting website has banners/links to leisure bookmakers, they could be profiting from punter’s losses. With that in mind, they don’t want site visitors to win because it lowers profit. When we at betting-analyst have banners, but they are prepaid and not revenue share.
Tips on bookmaker websites are absurd. Why would they want to help you win money from them, get a life!