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TIMING YOUR BET FOR MAXIMUM VALUE – BEATING THE SYSTEM

Timing your bet for maximum value. Professional betting, and increase your bottom line by following our expert betting guide.

Betting is all about the odds, and anyone who tells you different is wrong. It’s really simple, if you are taking 1.90 when true odds are 2.00, you are losing out. If you getting 2.10 about the same bet, you will beat the system. Timing your bet to get maximum value is a must, so let’s explain a few things!

EARLY VS LATE MARKET ODDS – TIMING YOUR BET FOR MAXIMUM VALUE

All professional sports betting gamblers understand the difference between early, day, and late market odds. Taking a football match as an example, this is what you need to know:

Those wanting to know the starting line-up, and weather conditions before placing a bet are late market bettors. For them, it’s easier to calculate expectancy once teams are released. However, it’s also the same for the bookmaker, and odds are likely to be much more accurate. Professional gamblers make money out of incorrect odds, the last thing they want is bookmaker accuracy!

Day markets have a degree of uncertainty because the weather could change, and the starting line-up is not official. With that said, the traveling squad would have been noted. Clubs are likely to confirm who’s missing, and the weather can be predicted. The advantage of betting day compared to the early market is odds have lower juice and betting limits are higher.

When practical we prefer betting early market. In stock exchange terms, it’s the same as futures trading. We are betting that the odds will move in our favour, thus ascertaining an advantage. 

At the end of the day, professional gamblers target betting at the highest odds possible. Sometimes that will be early, and on other occasions nearer the game. If you want to beat the bookmaker, understand the odds!

We mentioned weather conditions because it affects goal expectancy, which in turn has a bearing on betting lines!

BETTING MARKET (FORMATION) LOGISTICS

When a sport is popular, bookmakers will make odds at the earliest opportunity. In football,  English Premier League, Spanish La Liga, German Bundesliga, Italy Serie A, and France 1 are priced early. Once the weekend games are complete, bookmakers will make odds for the next round. Assuming that’s a week later, they are likely to open the betting 6-7 days in advance. It’s the same for other top sports such as NFL, Cricket, Rugby, and Aussie Rules. Whereas, big Boxing matches, Politics, and the World Cup are offered years in advance!

Some sports are priced much nearer the event. Take tennis as an example, it’s a knockout sport, and the odds can’t be made until the next fixture is known. Darts and Snooker are similar, whereas MLB will be priced once the pitcher is known! 

Anyone betting regularly will know when to expect odds, and those with superior knowledge can take advantage of the opening lines!

LIQUIDITY/LIMITS – TIMING YOUR BET FOR MAXIMUM VALUE

One of the issues with betting early odds is lower limits. Bookmakers are often testing the market with the first odds, and over the coming days, they will change those lines according to the weight of money being bet. Those such as Pinnacle who are working with dynamic odds are waiting for liquidity to enter the system before raising limits. 

It’s fair to say top leagues and sports attract the biggest betting volumes. I hope it makes sense when I say limits are in line with liquidity. To give an example, on a Monday, Pinnacle will accept around £4500 on an EPL match, and by match-day, that limit would have been raised to £30,000. Betting limits are progressive, in that they are lifted nearer the event.

USING SHARP LINES TO GUIDE

While this is sidetracking a little, knowing how to put sharp betting lines to good use can be beneficial. We suggest using this simple method for evaluation purposes, and to get high-value odds with other bookmakers. In short:

The object of the game is to beat converted (100% book) sharp odds. For example, if Pinnacle is offering a goal line (under/over) at odds 1.97 1.97, the converted 100% book odds will be 2.0 2.0. If you can find odds of 2.10 with one of your bookmakers, the betting juice is now in your favour!

Several bookmakers are known for having ‘’sharp betting odds’’, and in our, opinion Pinnacle is best. Other sharp bookies include BetISN, IBC, and Singbet, so you can use them too. Furthermore, if you understand the concept of betting-exchanges (Betfair, Smarkets, and Matchbook), these can also be used to derive accurate betting odds. For those with the possibility, betting-broker platforms such as Mollybet, 3et, and Asianodds offer amalgamated odds from several dynamic line bookmakers.

We cover this in more depth below and other betting blogs!

TIMING YOUR BET FOR MAXIMUM VALUE - BEATING THE SYSTEM

BETTING TOP LEAGUE FOOTBALL

If using sharp lines to guide, it doesn’t matter when a football bet is placed. You just need to understand the concept of value and step in when the opportunity occurs. Here is a working example of what we mean:

Imagine our favourite sharp bookmaker Pinnacle betting a big-league football match at 1.97 – 3.65 – 4.00 ( Betting percent 96.9%). If we convert (remove bookmaker juice) these betting lines into true (100%) odds (addictive method), they become 2.03 – 3.77 – 4.13. The challenge now is to find bigger odds with the betting accounts at hand. If one is offering the home team at say odds of 2.10, we have found value and can place a bet. It’s basic maths, getting odds of 2.10 on a true 2.03 shot will prove profitable!

Some advice – When doing an odds comparison, look in different markets for the same bet. An example is -0.5 Asian handicap is the same as Home (1) win in the 1X2 market.  It might surprise you to know, bookmakers often have different odds within the platform. 

We previously mentioned betting limits on top league football games are high, thus they can be bet several days in advance. If you know something which the general public doesn’t, chances are you can exploit the wrong odds!

Please note – as with most betting syndicates, we use algorithmic sports-modelling to create in-house odds. As new information arrives these lines are adjusted. Our job is to find what we consider to be out-of-line odds, and this is something you can explore with more experience.

FOOTBALL⚽ SECONDARY LEAGUES

We call MLS, Turkey Super League, England Championship, China Superleague, J-League, Scotland premier, Dutch Eredivisie, Sweden Allsvenskan, Norway Elite, Denmark Superliga, Swiss Super League, Russian Premier, Belgium Juplier, France 2, Spanish Segunda & Italian Serie B as secondary leagues. The mass of Bookmakers release first odds a bit later, and sharp bookmakers have low limits until match-day.

Traditionally speaking these leagues have higher bookmaker juice, but it’s still possible to find plenty of value in the early markets. The reason is soft bookmakers are lost without guidance from sharps, and it’s unlikely they will get any help until late in the week. While betting limits are lower, it’s possible to camouflage bets by spreading them between platforms!

WHEN TO BET TENNIS🎾 – TIMING YOUR BET FOR MAXIMUM VALUE

We should start by saying first released tennis odds are unlikely to be the odds at the beginning of the match. To be frank, it’s the blind leading the blind, and anyone with half a tennis brain can make bookmakers pay. With that said, while soft bookmakers are incompetent at producing odds, they are not stupid. The bookmaker’s defense mechanism (risk management) is tying opening lines with low betting limits. And, if you show ability, your betting account is likely to be quickly restricted or closed.

As professional gamblers, we don’t even consider opening tennis lines. From our point of view, it’s not worth losing betting accounts on the cheap. As a general rule of thumb, we tend to find the best betting value is 3-5 hours before the match is due to begin. While it will depend on the level of the tournament, our minimum requirement is Pinnacle have released odds!

NBA + MLB BETTING🏀

As with tennis, we prefer to wait until Pinnacle and a few others released odds for US sport. The problem with betting NBA + MLB at opening odds is higher juice and lower limits, and bets tend to be more watched by risk managers. It’s worth noting, what football odds do over three days happens a few hours with the NBA and MLB.

Furthermore, on MLB we are waiting on ‘’pitchers’’ to be released. Take into consideration, Money-line/handicap bets only become ‘’action’’ (bet to stand) if the named pitcher starts.

Looking through our in-house data, we find the best value bets 4-8 hours before the game starts.

HORSE RACING🏇(UK/IRELAND) – BEST TIME TO BET

Generally speaking opening odds for UK and Irish racing are released the evening before, and at first, bookmakers are testing the market with massive over-rounds (higher margins). To give an example of such, we recently looked at a 14 runner race with 160% (Bet365). Three hours before the race, the same bookmaker had reduced its book percent to 128%. At that stage, if we took the best odds from the dozen or so bookmakers on Oddschecker, the betting percentage was reduced to 114%.

The majority of racing bookmakers use an opening odds service, such as that provided by PA Sport. During the day, these odds are then adapted to new circumstances (no runners – Ground changes), and the weight of money being bet. Nearer race time bookmakers track the betting exchanges, and simply offer lower odds which they can lay-off! 

The best time to place a bet – most bookmakers offer what is known as BOG (best odds guaranteed). That means, take the odds after a certain time (10.00 a.m. with William Hill), and if the starting price is bigger you get paid the higher odds. Suffice to say, if you can get the best odds, and on top of that a guarantee of higher if the SP is bigger the bookmaker juice should be bear zero – It’s like having a free roll of the dice!

If you start winning too much, bookmakers will remove BOG and other offers. Nevertheless, if you have enough betting accounts, the stakes can be divided. It should also be possible to get others opening 3rd party accounts, or better still get a VIP account from someone who previously lost money to the bookmaker. 

Professional racing gamblers utilise every trick possible. That includes sending runners out to betting shops because with no name (account) betting it’s easier to avoid detection.   

Racing Power tips:

1. If the odds have gone, watch for them bouncing back when track bookmakers open betting. Racing odds can be quite volatile, and on-course bookmakers won’t necessarily be guided by early off-track odds. 

2. It’s imperative with racing that you learn to odds watch. If the majority of bookies are offering the same odds, wait for bigger. 

3. If the price is dropping, jump in with the bookmakers who haven’t cut the price. The stragglers will soon catch-up!

4. Don’t be scared to go for the bigger odds, there is more juice in these bets as bookies focus on the favourites.

5. Don’t be an each-way thief (wrong odds place), risk managers will see this straight away and you will be limited!

TIMING YOUR BET FOR MAXIMUM VALUE - BEATING THE SYSTEM

CONCLUSION – TIMING YOUR BET FOR MAXIMUM VALUE

There is no blueprint, but timing your bet to get maximum value is important to your bottom line. Just think about how you can take advantage without setting off any alarm bells. Keep track of the odds you get, and whether they beat the 100% betting exchange odds at the start. 

OPPORTUNITY – SERIOUS ABOUT BETTING?

If the answer is yes and you are in a position to bet professionally, consider our one-to-one (paid) coaching. Whether you are a beginner or betting syndicate, we can help you get more out of bookmakers. Coaching starts at €1000, a small price to pay if you can clean the bookies out! You can read more here!

admin@betting-analyst.com 

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