Sports-Betting – Win using this simple strategy. Informative video and easy to understand betting tutorial.
In the video/tutorial, we are going to show you how to beat the bookmakers While this is not a get rich scheme, it will put you on the right path. You will find the presentation at the end of this blog.
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SPORTS-BETTING – WIN USING THIS SIMPLE STRATEGY
The first thing we want to discuss is why punters lose. If you identify such problems, do something about them!
WHY PUNTERS LOSE (SPORTS-BETTING – WIN USING THIS SIMPLE STRATEGY)
Here are five reasons why a punter might be losing:
- They are compulsive gamblers who chase losses. Bookmakers benefit from addiction, so you need to stay away from chasing losses or getting greedy.
- Punters overthink it! Everyone is a wise guy with an opinion! Professional gambling is an education process, meaning one step at a time.
- No concept of value. Professional betting is all about obtaining the best odds. Every pip counts towards the bottom line.
- They get egged on by others quickly. If you are easily influenced, visiting forums can ruin your wealth. Avoid the herd mentality, and think it through!
- Poor choice of bookmakers. Do your research and get accounts with high-value betting sites. Depending on your residence, think it through.
UNDERSTANDING BETTING ODDS
We need to get you understanding betting odds, and we are going to cover the following basics:
- How are Odds made?
- How they relate to chance
- How to remove the juice/Vig using the additive method.
- This method works for any sport.
- How to use Pinnacle to guide
- Excel table
- How to beat the juice (find value odds)
How odds are made & Relate to chance
To keep this simple, we are going to put in balance odds (same for both teams)
To find the betting percentage, take the decimal odds and divide it into 100. For example, take two NFL teams being offered at 1.95 each. Converting Team A & B odds 1.95 into percentage is:
100/1.95 = 51.28%
100/1.95 = 51.28%
Total = 102.56%
To get the bookmakers take-out (juice), we need to invert the total per cent:
Inverted = 97.50 (100/102.56)
If the bookmaker had taken equal stakes of 1000 on each one, a total of 2000 bet, their hold/profit would be 50 (2000-1950).
This strategy also works for the best of three (see slider)
Remove the juice/vig (additive method)
Using the balanced odds given above, we will remove the bookmakers’ advantage and convert it to percentage terms. All we do is take the total betting percentage and divide it by the individual per cent.
122.56/51.28% = 2.00 (odds)
122.56/51.28% = 2.00 (odds)
As you can see, the odds are without any bookmaker juice. In other words, 2.0 & 2.0, just like the throw of a coin!
This calculation is the same for three-way betting (see slider) and other odds variance.
it works for any sport
It is the odds that count and not the start. Nevertheless, the additive method is best suited to the best of 2/3 sports. When the odds are like with racing/golf tournaments etc., the multiplicative procedure would be wiser. Best use is:
As promised, here is the link to an excel sheet. The sheet will act as a guide to making a 100% (no juice) betting book.
Once you understand, it is easy to make a bot that will convert odds to 100%. For the record, Pinnacle and other agencies supply API services, albeit at a cost.
How to use Pinnacle odds to guide
In our experience, Pinnacle odds are about the most accurate on the market. While nothing is 100%, our data research gives Pinnacle a 99.4% accuracy rating. Furthermore, if you find another bookmaker site that is better at a league/sport, the same method applies.
Use the juice removal (above) to convert Pinnacle odds to 100%. Here is an example of this best of 3 markets.
Total = 104.04%
Remove juice 104.04%/
28.31 = 2.15 odds (46.51%)
26.74 = 3.89 (25.71%)
28.99 = 3.59 (27.86%)
We rounded to 2 decimal points, thus the 100.08%. The percentage in brackets is now without juice, and the odds are 2.15 3.89 3.59.
How to beat the juice
As you can see, if we have accounts with any of these bookmakers, we can bet at larger odds.
The difference between 2.20 and 2.15 (no juice Pinnacle odds) is five pips. That is a value bet!
Your job is to beat the juice. Also, the bigger the value, the more interesting the bet. When you find 2.30 it is worth a bigger bet than when the odds are 2.16. The more juice, the better.
CONSIDERATIONS (SPORTS-BETTING – WIN USING THIS SIMPLE STRATEGY)
- It is a numbers game, the more high-value bets you can find, the better.
- Grow your betting bank (compounded interest). For example, if you place 2.5% on 800 bets per month with a 5% advantage, you will have doubled your bank.
- This method is just a stepping stone. It is crucial to improve your betting techniques and find other ways of beating the bookmaker. Learning is earning!
- Tread carefully with betting accounts. Bookmakers don’t like advantage takers, but with the right approach, you can profit a good amount.
- Source the best accounts. Make it easy on yourself by finding the bookmakers with the most value.
- Use third party accounts. At some stage, you will be stopped or limited, and now you need to find solutions.
- API/BOTS. Once you are profiting and understanding, it is time to take the next step, meaning software to help find bets.
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