Below you will find an outline text guide to our Youtube video titled Profit from Sports-betting strategies (value betting).
Before you start on your journey Profit from Sports betting strategies – value betting, you will need to make sure you tick these three boxes:
- Betting bank – This is money set aside for betting, not what you need for day-to-day living costs. Think of your betting bank as business start-up capital, meaning it’s not meant for your private use. Of course, you will be able to pay yourself at some stage, but for now, it’s a fund that needs growing!
- Suitable bookmakers – If you are from a country where betting is illegal, you are likely to be blocked from opening betting accounts with suitable bookmakers. With that in mind, we suggest taking stock of the potential bookmakers you have at hand. Think of this as the exploration part of a new business, ie the viability check!
- Discipline – It’s important to follow plans, meaning you can’t afford to get emotional or lose control. This is the aspect where most every-day punters fail because they do stupid things like chasing losses. Professional betting is about staying on top of the situation, and not crying because you feel unlucky!
TIMING OF BETS
One thing which separates professional gamblers from amateurs is understanding it’s all about the odds. If we were asked for a professional gambling tip, it would be chasing the very best odds. With that in mind, timing bets for maximum value is very important. To do that you will need to learn how to read the betting market. Timing of bets can be split into four segments, namely:
- Early Market betting – Best suited to those with very high knowledge of betting. If you are capable of predicting odds better than bookmakers, you will find high-value odds can be found in the early market. Success is measured by how odds are taken compared to those at the start of an event. Beating them regularly is proof of concept!
- Game day betting – Betting on the day of the event is most popular with the typical leisure punter. That’s because they are wanting a quick return on their betting dollar! The benefits for Professional gamblers are higher betting limits, lower juice, and more accurate information (team news – weather conditions). On the downside, odds are more likely to better reflect chance, and they are more compressed when bookmakers have a market guide.
- Late day betting – For us this would mean placing a bet up-to one hour before the start of an event. By then starting teams are known, and there is often a late betting frenzy. At this stage, bookmakers are often tracking betting exchanges for guidance, but those quick & keen enough can still find an advantage.
- In-play betting – In-play (live) odds are great for variance, which of course means betting value. Many bookmakers import live-odds from a 3rd party service, and that’s why you often see similarities from certain groups. With that said, these services are using different sports-modelling algorithms, and that creates many arbitrage and value betting opportunities. Furthermore, the ever-changing nature and high speed of in-play-betting make it almost impossible for bookmakers to track each other. We find betting accounts that concentrate on inlay betting often have more longevity than pre-match!
ESTABLISH TRUE ODDS – VALUE ODDS
A value strategy that can be used to beat bookmakers is betting at bigger than true odds. We are referring to the no juice, or the 100% book price. Examples of such are odds 2.00 and 2.00 on the flip of a coin, and odds of 6.00 on rolling a dice. To help identify true odds start by using betting exchanges, or a sharp bookmaker such as Pinnacle.
On a point of note, it’s easier to establish true odds on high liquidity betting leagues. In football, England’s premier league, Spain La Liga, Italy Serie A, Champions League, and German Bundesliga fit the bill. Sports such as NFL, NBA, MLB, and Tennis are easy to figure out, albeit it’s important to stick with popular betting types. We are referring to Money-Line, Asian-handicap, and Totals (under/over), and not prop betting!
With regards to using betting exchanges for finding true odds, it’s important to have liquidity. From experience, the market starts to get more serious near kick-off. If you look at the top of the betting offer, it’s possible to see total matching stakes. When this gets above 500K betting exchanges are a good guide. You also need to understand the difference between bet & lay odds, and how 1.99 (bet) and 2.01 (lay) would become 2.00 (medium) to calculate true odds.
Using sharp bookmakers to guide is a similar process. You should know limits are increased during the week because bookmakers using dynamic odds (move according to the weight of money bet) have already taken many bets. To remove the bookmakers betting juice, use the additive method to calculate true odds. For example, if the odds being offered on an Asian handicap are 1.97 and 1.97, they convert to 2.00 and 2.00 at 100%
As you gain more experience, it will be possible to enhance the procedure and methods for finding value odds. In the meantime, go challenge yourself! See if you can find higher odds with soft bookmakers, here are a few: Unibet, Bet365, VCbet, 10bet, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Corals, Betsson.
Also, look out for the bookmakers who are trying to take market share by offering the best odds, Marathonbet would be the perfect example. And, bear in mind many betting shops leave odds hanging, you might be able to take advantage!
IT’S A NUMBERS GAME
It’s really simple, continually betting at advantageous odds makes money. Betting with the odds in your favour once means nothing because the bet could still lose. However, betting with the same advantage 10,000 times is sure to deliver a balanced profit, and that’s because it’s a numbers game!
Let’s just say, flipping a coin on a one-off is a 50/50 shot, or odds of 2.0 and 2.00. If a bookmaker is offering odds of 2.10, there is still a 50% chance of losing. Spin the same coin 100 times at odds 2.10, and you need it to come good 45.45 times to break even. Suffice to say, there are still no guarantees, but chances have improved from the one-off. Do it 10,000 times, and expectancy is 5000 times on each side. To lose it would need to go below 4545!
We are just saying – bet at over the odds consistently, and profits are assured!
Here is a good rule to follow, bigger odds discrepancies warrant bigger stakes. If true odds are 2.00 and best odds are 2.01, the advantage is really small with an expected ROI of just 0.5%. At odds of 2.05, the ROI increases to 2.5%, and at 2.10 it increases to 5%.
At the end of the day, professional punters need to find the right balance. Winning accounts are inevitably closed, so it’s not always worth making the bet for such a low margin. The bigger the expected ROI, the more you should be betting at the wrong odds!
SUREBETS & VALUE BETS
For us, value bets are more interesting than sure bets. Unless the odds are equally wrong, we don’t see the need to cover. By that we mean, if we could bet both teams to kick off at 2.01, we would make the bet. However, if we could get Team A at odds of 2.05, and Team B at 1.97, we would just take heads (2.05) and not cover. We wouldn’t cover at negative odds – only big soft barbers would do that!
Have a guess, would we recommend combination betting?
The answer is yes, with the reason being it’s advantageous to accumulate wrong odds. If true odds are 2.00 and you can get 2.10, the expected ROI on a single bet is 5%. Imagine getting 3 teams with the same advantage, true odds are 2.0*2.0*2.0 = 8.00, whereas value odds of 2.10*2.10*2.10 = 9.26. In this case, the new expected ROI is 15.75%.
For the record, we preferred making system bets such as 3 from 5 (10 combinations). The only important factor is betting at bigger than true odds, and let them accumulate!
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