The biggest challenge for professional gamblers is keeping betting accounts open, and that’s particularly true with horse racing. While you might see bookmakers advertise best odds guaranteed, that service is only available to proven losers!
Bookmakers make odds for every race in the UK and Ireland, and they recently started doing the same for France, U.S.A., and Hong Kong. Opening odds are usually supplied by data companies such as PA Betting services, and they are far from accurate! It’s seldom early odds will be anything near Staring price, meaning they are easy to take on!
With that said, most UK and Irish bookmakers don’t care about odds inaccuracies. The reason is they have another weapon of choice, namely risk managers. Their job is to find customers who are capable of beating the system and stop them from betting.
If anyone starts winning with an online bookmaker, risk managers will start by removing incentives such as free bets or best odds guaranteed. If the winning continues, the next course of action is to limit accounts. In a recent experiment we conducted with Betfred, this is what happened:.
Despite keeping bets under £100 to avoid detection, it was just 7 days and 1220 profit before the first letter arrived. It said you are no longer entitled to any promotions. Two days later the account was limited to winning £200 per bet, then followed £100, and £50. We managed to take them for about 2850 before the account was useless, and we took the money and ran!.
DIFFERENT TYPE OF BETTING PROFESSIONALS
To be successful at betting, you must understand the maths is important. However, that doesn’t mean you need to be a mathematical genius to profit from gambling, because there are tools that can help. For example, anyone can sign up for an arbitrage, matched-betting, or value-focused service. In this situation, you pay a monthly fee for a platform that scans bookmaker websites for beneficial odds. Racing punters also have the option of using betting exchanges for a price (odds) guide. In this instance, the object of the game is to find bookmaker odds that are higher than the 100% exchange book price. Suffice to say, do that on a regularly and profits are assured!
Professional gamblers come in all shapes and sizes, and the majority are simply odds cheats who take advantage of competition amongst bookmakers. However, another category exists, namely Master betting professionals. These individuals/syndicates stay ahead of the game, and they are not reliant on market divergencies to profit. This level of professional understands the real maths behind betting, and they often use Sports-modelling (algorithms) to beat bookmakers at their own game!
HORSE RACING VS OTHER SPORT
Sports-modelling is a major tool in professional betting, albeit it’s easier in some sports than others. Logic says running an algorithm on a tennis match is easier than doing the same for a 14 horse race. The reason is there are many more factors to consider with the horserace, whereas tennis is a 1-on-1 sport. Just stop and think about the basics of putting odds to a tennis match, the considerations are:
- Rankings – That’s just a number.
- Previous head to heads – Past meetings are worth considering.
- Type of court – Surface record.
- Recent form – Get an understanding of performance.
- Fitness – Any medical issues, watch for bandages.
- Motivation – higher-ranked players try harder at big tournaments.
- Previous round – Watch for body language/performance.
With football betting, it gets slightly more complicated, because you need to guess the starting line-up and options on the bench. Home/away, travelling, and past meetings are other considerations. On top of that, weather conditions could have a bearing on goal expectancy. Match officials can be a game-changer, and in some competitions, motivation is a concern. We can share with you that our football algorithm considers 43 factors, although some are more important than others!
With regards to horse racing, we favour individual knowledge over Sports-modelling. The reason is too many variables, and especially a massive horse pool. In countries such as Hong Kong and Singapore, it’s easier to run an algorithm on horse-racing. After all, they only have two tracks and a small pool of horses. In this situation, it’s easier to figure out a runner’s ability. Correct distance, type of ground it likes. Draw advantage is known, and the ground conditions tend to be very similar. You still need to figure out how a race is likely to be run, but all-in-all it’s easier to use sports-modelling than in the UK, Ireland, or France.
Below we have listed what you need to consider if betting horses. Our advice, work on it because practice makes perfect!
HORSE RACING CONTINGENCIES
- Handicap mark – consider past ratings and performance.
- Weight – Some are betting giving weight away to inferior opposition, and vice versa.
- Ground – This is so important, check the horse’s profile for performance on certain types of ground
- Track – Tracks in Europe are very unique. Left/right handed, flat/undulating, tight/galloping are some considerations
- Draw – This could be dictated by the ground, and a good draw might not be best for a hold-up-horse.
- Form – Recent form is one thing, go a bit deeper using all contingencies.
- Jockey – Some riders suit better than others, could make a difference.
- Trainer – They all do things differently, get an understanding of what/when to expect.
- Stable form – Consider expectancy. Sending out a load of favourites is different too many outsiders.
- Time between races – Some horses recover quickly, others not. Also, some go well fresh, others need a run or two!
- Opposition – Don’t just look at the horse you want to bet, consider how the opposition will handle today!
- Size of the field – Horse’s profile will give a better understanding of what to expect.
- Distance – Some tracks are easier than others, a mile at one might be like 7F at another. Just think about it.
- Journey to track – Depends on the type of horse, but a nervous one wouldn’t want a 6-hour drive.
- Weather – If it’s going to rain it will change the ground, the sun will dry and make the surface faster.
- Non-runners – Could change the complexion of the race.
- Earlier races – If any have been run before your race, they might be a guide on what to expect!
For those interested – we covered the above in a different tutorial.
WHAT YOU NEED TO WIN AT BETTING
Consider your options, and how you are going to get the most out of betting:
- Legal rights – To make life easier, you should be resident in a betting friendly jurisdiction. Remove the legal risk, and you won’t be breaking the law. It’s also easier to get paid because gaming operators will know you have recourse to licensing regulators and courts. Another part of being gaming-friendly is no betting taxes on stakes or winnings!
- Betting shops – They could be a great asset has no I.D. is required, and i’s easier to camouflage bets through betting terminals and in shops. If you want to avoid detection, don’t go for maximum stakes. We would suggest betting in busy shops, and wealthy areas are more viable. Big cities have more betting shops, so it is easier to split stakes and hit a load of shops!
- Bookmaker options – Whether betting in shops or online, the more competition you have the better your chance of finding value. We advise dividing stakes into lower sums to slow down the process of getting banned. In short, open many accounts and take every advantage possible.
- Losing Betting accounts – If you were a serial loser in the past, chances are you have a viable asset with your betting account. We say that because bookmakers raise limits for proven losers, and this is something that can be exploited.
- Use Third-party ‘’Gnome’’ accounts – If you become a regular winner, chances are you will need to use third party betting accounts. Syndicates/professional gamblers often pay for such, so get thinking about it!
- VIP betting accounts – Yummy yummy!, getting a VIP account can be highly beneficial. VIP accounts are usually given to people who have proven themselves to be losers. When bookmakers believe you are a fool, they increase betting limits so you can lose more. Suffice to say, getting limits increased from 200 to 2000 can be rewarding. While they won’t last forever, enjoy the moment (ps – If you have a VIP account, let us talk!).
- Multiple betting – If you are getting advantageous odds, there is nothing wrong with multiple betting. In theory, accumulating any odds advantage means a bigger ROI (return on investment). Furthermore, multiple betting makes it harder for bookmakers to detect winning accounts, and that’s the name of the game!
- Betting exchanges – If you are betting near the start it is possible to bet big sums on betting exchanges. By keeping the cards (your bet) close to your chest, chances are odds will stand-up. Furthermore, you can lay a bet, or use options such as ‘’bet to lay’’, or ‘’lay to bet’’.
- PMU Betting – If you know what you are doing, betting on the French PMU can be lucrative. While betting big stakes will reduce the pool odds, it can be a price worth paying. In any case, some bookmakers lay both PMU odds and fixed odds, so you have a choice and the best of both worlds!
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