It’s easy to beat the bookmaker once you understand the basic maths behind horse race betting. Before we crack on, there are more factors to consider in horse racing compared to other sports. With that said, the biggest issue for professional racing gamblers is getting on. The fact is bookmakers don’t like punters taking their money, and they know it’s possible to make big profits betting horses! In this tutorial we cover professional horse racing gambler secrets revealed – 10 high powered horse racing tips!
In professional betting knowledge is power, our quest is to make our followers more efficient gamblers. Let us start by covering some of the factors to consider, they will dictate a runners chance!
TRAINER FACTOR – POOR VALUE ODDS
Did you know? Blindly betting all runners from top stables such as Willie Mullins, AP O’Brien, Gordon Elliott, Dan Skelton, Jonjo O’Neill & Michael Appleby is an expensive hobby. Need proof, here are some of the trainer/betting stats:
Over the past 12 months, Mullins had 223 winners from 1015 runners, that’s a seemingly solid 22% strike rate. However, most of his runners are favourites and betting 1 point on each at starting price (SP) would have cost around 212 points. To make money from betting each of the Mullins runners, you would need average odds higher than 4.56. For the record, those 223 winners had average odds of just 3.60.
AP O’Brien had 185 winners from 1231 runners, betting one unit on each would have lost 167, and that’s an equivalent ROI of (minus) -14%. Jonjo O’Neill had 67 winners from 500 runners, a point on each would have lost 105 points, or -21%!
The point we are trying to make, runners from top stables are often over-bet (false odds) and generally poor value.
To be a professional horse racing gabler, you need to think outside the box, and not join the herd!!
EXTREMES OF GROUND – HORSE RACING GAMBLER SECRETS
From a betting perspective, it’s vital to watch for changes in the ground. With that in mind, stay informed about weather conditions. Watch earlier races to see what’s happening, and understand how changes will affect each runner’s chance. Looking through the profile (past runs) of a runner should tell a story. If there isn’t enough form to consider, research how the horse’s parents ran on the different types of ground.
From experience, bookmakers will react to any changes in circumstances. At the same time, they will respond to the weight of money being bet, meaning the betting public is guiding the odds. Suffice to say, this will create deficiencies, and It’s this naiveness that opens the door to great value betting opportunities!
In layman’s terms, and an example of what is meant. If a proven heavy ground runner would be 10/1 for a race on good ground, the bookmakers are likely to chalk up 7/1 on its favoured ground. However, true odds are probably nearer 4/1, thus creating a massive odds discrepancy.
A small tip – If you don’t have much experience of reading form, look at the racing post PM (post-mark). While it’s just a loose guide, you should at least be able to see how each runner performs on the varying ground.
DUAL PURPOSE HORSES – PAY ATTENTION
A dual purpose-horse is a runner who mixes flat and national hunt (jumping) racing. This is quite common with moderate middle distance flat bred horses, so moving on to our point.
Pay particular attention when a runner switches between codes because they are likely to have improved or deteriorated during the interim. An example of what we mean:
At the end of the last jump season, a horse was rated 100 over hurdles, and when switched back to the flat it started with an existing mark of 60. Following three flat wins, the handicapper raised its rating to 80. In theory, the horse improved 20 pounds, and now it’s going back to hurdles with its old mark of 100. Suffice to say, improvement in one sphere can be carried over, and that means it could be well handicapped over hurdles. Racing form can also be regressive, that too should be taken into any calculation.
SWITCH TO CHASING – HORSE RACING GAMBLER SECRETS
Some horses are made to be chasers, others not. We just want to make everyone aware it’s a very different game, and for those interested here are a couple of considerations.
When a horse switches from flat racing to hurdling it’s a normal transition, when they move to bigger fences be cautious. This is particularly the case with older exposed horses because they are unlikely to be natural jumpers. Chasing is more about getting into a jumping rhythm, so ex flat horses need to prove themselves.
If a trainer is willing to switch codes with a young horse, or after just a small amount of hurdle races it’s a positive! After all, it suggests they have shown themselves to be naturals at home. These types are likely to improve 10-30 pounds now chasing, meaning handicap marks carried over from hurdling are easy for the trainer to expose!
A horse who started racing life in point-to-points is likely to be a future chaser. The normal progression would be a few P-2-P’s, followed by 2-3 bumper races, and then a handful of hurdles before making the switch to chasing. Watch out for these when they debut because there is big betting value to be found!
CHANGE OF STABLES
This is where you need to know your trainers, and whether moving stables is a positive or negative move. A change of scenery is not always a bad thing, and different stables suit different types of horses. We try and avoid mass training factories, I’m referring to yards who are playing the numbers game. One such example is Gordon Elliott, his turnover rate is massive!
As a general rule, top trainers clear out horses who are not reaching the required level. It’s less rare than you think for a horse who cost 250K being sold for 10K. Suffice to say, moving to a lower grade yard with fewer facilities isn’t necessarily an advantage, but it can be! One trainer who does well with duds is Dr. Richard Newland, and there are plenty more!
When a racehorse moves from a small too big stable, improvement is a distinct possibility. Also, look for those being acquired for big sums of money, especially when they are young and impressionable. Racing is like football, in that the better players from lower leagues are sold to bigger clubs. The opposite is also true, in that the value decreases with age!
WEIGHT COUNTS FOR MORE IN SMALL FIELDS & LONGER DISTANCES
Weight counts for more in small fields (number of runners), and that’s because races are run more tactically. You will often see top-weights winning big field handicaps, but giving 2 stone in a five-runner race is harder. We accept this is a generalisation because other factors are involved. For example, some horses are better at giving weight to inferior rivals, while others are more efficient when they receive weight from better horses. Nevertheless, this is a good rule of thumb, and it’s simply meant to get you thinking!
The longer the race distance, the more impact weight makes. A sprint on the flat can’t be compared to a long-distance race. It’s the same with minimum distance jump races compared to those over marathon trips. The ground is also a big factor because giving weight on heavy is harder than doing the same on a fast surface!
PERFORMANCE IN DIFFERENT SIZED FIELDS – HORSE RACING GAMBLER SECRETS
When assessing a race, it’s wise to take on board how the runners performed in different sized fields. Some horses are at their best in a big pack, whilst others don’t like to be crowded. Another consideration, front-runners are more likely to get an uncontested lead in a small race, while hold-up horses often benefit from a strong pace associated with big fields. While each horse is an individual, a search through the runner’s profiles should point to any preferences.
We would like to reiterate, the same rule applies to weights. Some are better at carrying big weights against poorer opposition, where others do best when receiving weight from better opposition.
FRENCH HORSES JOINING UK/IRISH STABLES ARE BADLY HANDICAPPED
When ex-French horses are debuting in the UK or Ireland, they are often over-rated by the handicapper, bookmakers, and Racing Post alike.
We bet French racing every day, and it’s something we have been doing successfully for the past 20 years. During that time we have done plenty of reverse engineering, meaning we compare how UK/Irish/German-trained runners perform in France and vice versa.
What we can share, when ex-French horses go directly into a UK handicap they are at a disadvantage. The situation with jumpers is even more excessive because in our findings they are often over-rated by up to 15 pounds!
We don’t understand why this parity exists, but who cares when we can take advantage!
PS – when a French horse joins a big stable in the UK or Ireland,it’s often over-bet!
PAY ATTENTION TO TRAINER FORM – HORSE RACING GAMBLER SECRETS
If you use the Racing Post one of the tools available is trainer form. It’s easy to use, just click on the trainer’s name, and a profile box will pop-up. In doing so you will see is a list of his/her runners over the past 14 days, and were they finished, and at what odds.
When judging a trainer’s recent form we need to consider expectancy. By that we mean, if all winners were short-priced favourites they were expected to win or be placed. If runners win or place at big odds, that would suggest stable runners are performing above expectancy. All we are saying is be realistic, and do the maths. After all, if a big trainer had 6 winners from 50 runners at average odds of 3/1, betting each would lose 26 points. Delve deeper and you will see how the yards runners are performing!
TIME OF YEAR – LAID OUT FOR A HANDICAP
If you look through the profile of older handicappers, you will see many wins at a certain time of the year. Some even win the same race, so it’s natural for a trainer to target that particular event. The horse’s chance of winning will be increased if they are turning up in peak form, and have a winning handicap mark. Having a few prep races is deemed an advantage because it helps improve fitness and lower the handicap mark!
With younger horses, trainers often hold back to qualify for a lower handicap mark. One trick is to race over the wrong distance, or not be fully fit. Once they have a h’cap mark things get serious, trainers get them fit and change to a more suitable distance!
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