Sports betting explained – how to make money betting on tennis.
At betting-analyst.com we are on a mission to help you become a winner. In this tutorial/video, we discuss tennis betting, and what you need to understand. Hopefully, by reading through our notes, and watching our video, you will improve your understanding. For those wanting to do sports-modelling, take into consideration the mentioned factors!
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It is not just the win/loss. Consider:
- Who they played (level) – Beating a bunch of low ranked players doesn’t amount too much, but defying the odds is a different story.
- Recent, YTD, Overall – Recent form is more relevant. However, the YTD could be down to the tennis program, meaning keep an open mind.
- Expectancy (betting) – Track the betting data. On Flashscore & other live score websites, you can see odds data from past matches.
- Reasons (injuries) – Consider all the contingencies, and also that of their opponents. Generally, take a wide angled view of past performance.
- Patterns – Pay particular attention too patterns based on circumstances. An example, surface, past tournament form, and the time of year.
Rank is relative to many factors. Miss parts of the season and rank will suffer. Take on board:
- Career-high rank – Be realistic, if a player is in decline, the career-high rank is when a player was at their peak.
- Current rank – As mentioned above, think of all the factors. If a player missed a big chunk of the season, the actual rank is a poor indicator.
- Reasons for rank – Consider the time of the year. If a hard court player is playing on clay, you might want to deduct a few points.
- Make own ranking – A player might be 50th best of hard-court, but 20th best on clay. Make own rankings based on the stats you have at hand!
- Potential – If an 18 year old is on an upward trajectory, they are likely to improve rank. Continually analyse to get a clear picture.
Watch for changes in the weather. Some players handle enforced breaks (rain), others don’t. Moreover:
- Players profile – Plenty of Websites supply data. You can see win/loss/surface/head to heads etc. Tennis Live is a ok free source.
- Parallels – No two courts are the same, but you will need to do some gauging. Consider who performed well in the past for a courts suitability.
- How the court is playing – We know how the court played Lin the past, but before the first round its assumption. Watch early matches for insights.
- Time of the day – Generally speaking, playing mornings is cooler than afternoons. Under floodlights and covers the ball will move slower, etc.
- Weather – Consider humidity, if it is heavy the ball will be slow and big hitters won’t be effective. The heat and wind are other factors to consider.
Gauge the level of a players wellbeing:
- Look for bandaging – Moreover, look at were the bandaging is placed, and amount. Figure out whether it’s effecting a players movement, and what to expect.
- Body language (in-play) – KYP (know your player) With some players body language is a giveaway, whereas with others it’s part of the act.
- Recent withdrawals/retirements – If a player withdrew from recent tournaments, they might be lacking fitness. Delve into a players profile, and research.
- Time since last played – Playing lots of tennis effects players differently. Some need time in between matches and tournaments, others handle a heavy schedule.
- Movement – Not all injuries can be recognised by bandaging. Watch for lame movement, shoulder, wrist, and elbow injuries.
Big tournaments are no brainers, everyone wants to peak that day. What about lower-grade stuff?
- Doe a player want it – Watch for tournament abuse, players using low level events for conditioning. Normally, this happens when a big tournament is approaching.
- Prize-money – The higher-ranked players are not interested in minor tournaments. They might win by default, but experience suggests they won’t peak.
- Points available – In some situations, players might need points to make the cut for other tournaments, or avoid qualifications. Do a numbers check.
- Opposition – If a 20 ranked player isn’t motivated, but a 50 ranked player is. Chances are the motivated player will win, and that the betting value is a bonus.
- Past efforts – If a player performed well at this tournament in the past, they will be out to protect points.
Lots to consider here:
- Journey – If someone was playing a final in Asia on a Sunday, they will struggle to be ready for a tournament in another part of the world in two days!
- Time zone – Imagine making a big time zone change. It takes time to adapt, and a longer preparation is better. Hence, it’s a big ask without prep time.
- Support – Some players respond to fans in a positive way, whereas others prefer a quiet court. Watch for player nerves, and on both sides of the court.
- Preparation time – Getting court practice and feeling comfortable is an optimum situation. Being knocked out of a previous tournament early can be an advantage.
- Regional weather forecast – If you are betting early, take into consideration weather expectancy. Lots of rain could mean playing two matches per day!
History often repeats itself!
- Past performance – A one-off result might be just that. However, some players target certain tournaments, so looking at past results can be eye opening.
- Changes in date/surface – Slots can be changed in the tournament calendar. Also, watch for a change in surface, some places have more than one!
- Prize money/ranking – Consider a players past ranking and compare it to that on the day. Some will advance, while others have declined.
- Competition – Look at the level of players started in previous years, compared to the one for the actual tournament. Updrade/downgrade accordingly.
- Expectancy – this will take a bit of figuring out. Hence, you need to take on board all the factors mentioned in this blog. Figure it out!
Winning last week might be a disadvantage. Consider:
- When someone last played – If a player arrives at a tournament on the back of making last weeks final, they won’t have had time to adapt.
- Recovery/preparation time – When players have tough previous rounds, it could lead to fatigue. That is especially the case late in a tournament.
- Players profile revealing – I can’t emphasise enough, study a players profile. Watch for trends. Figure out reasons for good/poor performance.
- Planned schedule – Also, consider a players plans. If they are scheduled to play at a big tournament next week, they might wish to leave (lose) soon!
STAGE OF TOURNAMENT
Use psychology to figure out expectancy:
- What is typical of an individual – Some players are all or nothing, others more consistent. Take note, inconsistencies create betting value, be fully awake!
- Quick starter – For in-play betting watch for quick starters. You can bet them pre-match, and hedge during the game. Figure out a betting strategy.
- Grow into tournaments – Watch for players who improve during tournaments, rather than those who start fast before fading. Stamina, fitness, and wanting it!
- Consistent – when a player is consistent, it is easy to figure their true level. With that said, it is also easy for the bookmaker, and that is not a good thing.
- Erratic results – Some players make hard work of beating easy opponents, while others are more ruthless and get the job done. Consider past results!
HEAD TO HEADS
Past match-ups are revealing.
- Lifetime – If something took place 10 years ago, it is less relevant. Nevertheless, we still need to consider whether playing styles suit!
- Recent meeting – more relevance. All the same, we need to take into consideration all the factors at the time of those matches. Understand detail.
- Surface – Leading the head to heads 3/0 on clay doesn’t mean the same player will win on grass. Ask questions of your data, the answer is there!
- Expectancy – What was the ‘’betting’’ expectancy in past meetings, and what is it today. Circumstances and situations differ, do a proper evaluation.
- Changes – what about a players rank, or current/then form. Wellbeing (then & now). Fact finding data can be used to your advantage!
10 OTHER CONSIDERATIONS
- Type of opponent – Grouping players is something we do. Look for parallels, similar playing styles, and a feeling for all the players.
- Slow/quick starters – In-play betting can be highly beneficial if you can read the game. Bookmakers algorithms are work on the numbers (scoreline) exploit it!
- Match length (assess handicap) – Some players are notorious for failing to cover the handicap. Look at a players past scorelines, it is often a giveaway.
- Ruthless or not – If you are betting someone to win 2/0, they need to be ruthless. However, the opposite is also true, and in a best of two sport it is exploitable.
- Watch for changes – Some players get married, others go and have a kid. Changes in coaching, schedule, living location, and nationality can effect performance.
- Right bookmaker accounts – When trading currencies you have one price. With bookmakers you have different odds, go shopping for the best betting accounts.
- Use Pinnacle opening lines – We did a video on value betting, and how to use Pinnacle odds to find an advantage with others. Here is the link.
- Bet the odds, not the player – Everything as a price. Evaluate the correct odds for a match, and use those numbers to find an advantage with bookmakers.
- You can only control what you can control – If a player wins/losers, it is nothing to do with your prediction. You can control the bet, but not the performance.
- Attend tournaments – I would recommend everyone to attend tournaments. You see things that a TV audience can’t. Big betting advantage if you know what you are doing.
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