Go with this for a second free bet ——— In the past, this race has been a bit of a jinx for Aidan O’Brien. Despite saddling the big favourite COULD IT BE LOVE and third fav HENCE, we believe Ballydoyle will go home empty handed again. At these weights British raider LINCOLN ROCKS is honest but badly treated, and that also applied to XENOBIA. For us LIGHTENING QUICK is a must bet at what we consider to be very decent odds. To be fair Johnny Murtagh’s inmate was given a poor ride in the Irish guineas, and in the circumstances he ran really well. With the prospect of more to come, he’s got to be worth a punt.
We have 4 racing bets today, and we are giving two for free. PS - We are not taking any new Racing subscribers, so no need to ask ——— THE TRIGGER won easy enough at Perth, but this is a slightly better race and he’s 8 pounds higher. MILLE NAUTIQUE is 6 pounds below his chasing rating, and he’s also a course winner. However, he’s also changed stable, and his over profile doesn’t appeal. The one to chance is another who changed stables. ANGEL OF HARLEM is now with Olly Murphy from Mark Bradstock. The five year old is lightly raced, appears to have a nice h’cap mark and an 8 pound claimer is booked for the ride. While the stable have been struggling for winners, most of their horses have been running well enough. The other positive factor could be the better ground, because this fella only ran on heavy.
Starting pitchers are Madison Bumgarner for the hosts and Jack Flaherty for the visitors. Despite now 4 consecutive quality starts for Bumgarner, we're still not fully convinced that the big southpaw is an elite pitcher and advanced stats largely agree with us as his xFIP entering this game sits at a pedestrian 4.28 compared to his 2.58 ERA. Bumgarner's strikeout numbers are alarmingly low and we believe it's only a matter of time until he is exposed. The Cardinals present a good opportunity for this to happen as they hit predominantly from the right side and can hit for power and handed Bumgarner one of his worse outings last season in September. On the other side Jack Flaherty has been one of the better strikeout pitchers in the league but we feel that he too is hasn't been as good as his numbers indicate and he has struggled his last 2 starts, allowing 8 runs over 10 innings. Flaherty's splits vs left handers is noticeably worse than against right handers and the Giants should look to stack the lineup with lefties to exploit this. Furthermore, Flaherty generally doesn't eat up innings and leaves too much exposure to the poor Cardinals bullpen in our opinion. On that note, the Giants' relievers aren't much better so all things considered, we believe this total is a tick too low!
Croatia were super impressive against Nigeria (2-0), and thoroughly convincing in their win over Argentina. Beating Iceland (2-1) in round three was revenge for that team finishing ahead of them at the group stage. However, after controlling the first 30 minutes against Denmark, we actually thought Zlatko Dalic’s men were awful for the rest of the game. In fact, the Vatreni looked legless in the second half, and they were on the ropes for much of extra time. While we consider Croatia fortunate to get past Denmark, they do have bits of quality. Having a long interval between matches could also have helped their older players recover. With that said, we really can’t imagine this team having the stamina to make it all the way, even if they do have an easy opponent on paper. A quick blick over the Russian team sheet wouldn’t get anyone excited, and we really thought they had burst the bubble when losing 3-0 to Uruguay. However, hindsight suggests they might have wanted to finish second in that group, because the passage became easier. Stanislav Cherchesov’s team shocked big opponents Spain in the last round, and they did it by playing direct football. After a somewhat nervous start in that game, the host team got a full head of wind and deservedly marched into the last 8. To be frank, we believe the books are right with current odds of 2.21 3.11 4.06 (Pinnacle). However, we disagree with their assessment of the goals market, because +2 can be bet at positive odds. WE PLACED THIS BET NICE + EARLY - Odds were clearly wrong!! ----We can imaging the Croatian’s wanting to get an early goal, and it’s that which could open things up. No idea who will go through, too many improbable but we expect a few goals
Take it or leave it, this is the free WTA bet for today. With all due respect, if Belinda Bencic can carry on at the same level she should crucify Carla Suarez Navarro. Afterall, the Spaniard isn’t made for this surface, and she doesn’t have the game of the former top tenner. We thought Bencic was cooked when a set and a break down against Alison Riske. In fact, she also had four match points against her before finding the shots to beat the American. And, while it wasn’t exactly vintage tennis it did show that the Swiss Miss could be making a big statement here. Momentum and confidence should give Bencic enough of a boost to go out and kill it!
What can you say about the World Cup other than it’s been full of surprises. And, while we can’t suggest that England have defied the odds to make it to this stage, we can say the pathway has certainly opened. Whichever way you look at it England are similar to the German team who won the last world cup. By that we mean they are a young group of players who are growing in stature and capable of more. England are clearly doing things a lot more professionally than in the past, and after a long time trying they are even winning penalty shoot-outs. While some might disagree, the Three Lions did outplay Columbia for the first 75 minutes (+ last 15 of extra time). Furthermore, it wasn’t their fault that Columbia were intent on playing a dirty game with some atrocious fouling. Whether the penalty for England was justified is open to conjecture, but things balance out because they should have had a second 10 minutes later. From what we saw England made no attempt to beat Belgium, and taking second in the group stage was the right thing to do. As you know, we recommended a big bet on Sweden in their match against Switzerland, and we thought they were excellent value for the win. We were also very happy to see the Blägult qualify ahead of Germany, because the national Elf were simply unsporting when beating Janne Andersson’s side in the second group match. Sweden are certainly ultra tough opponents, and they have a decent record against England (8-7 for England). However, if we are being really analytical about the Scandinavians, they don’t have much in the way of quality strikers. And, that’s the thing, getting past the English midfield won’t be easy and if anything we expect the Swede’s to suit the Three Lions better than most other teams. England have plenty of quality, so a 2-0 win in normal time is our prediction. With everything considered, odds going over 2.00 are high value.
Starting pitchers are Max Scherzer for the hosts and Wei-Yin Chen for the visitors. Wei-Yin Chen has been one of the worst starting pitchers in the league this season but his last 2 starts have been extremely encouraging as the southpaw has allowed just 1 earned run over 12 innings of work with a 10/1 K/BB ratio during that span. Most importantly, it's Chen's velocity that has seen an uptick and likely the reason for his success. It bears mentioning that Chen's last 2 starts came at home and this one won't be in the pitcher-friendly confines of Marlins Park but Nationals Park is not too forgiving to right handers which is an advantage that suits Chen as he struggles mightily against them while being extremely effective against lefties. It also bears mentioning that the Nationals' better hitters hit from the left side so we feel this is as good of a matchup as Chen could have hoped for. On the other side, there isn't too much we can really say about Max Scherzer as the 3 time Cy Young award winner is one of the best pitchers in the game today. But the Marlins have shown him to be hittable and even got him for 4 runs on 7 hits over 6 innings in late May, though the Nationals would win that game 9-5. Nevertheless, even with the bullpen disparity as well, we believe these odds are well worth taking!
NOTE: THIS IS NOT A PREMIUM MLB BET. WE HAVE 5 OF THOSE GOING TONIGHT WITH ONE OF THEM POSTED ON THE SITE. IF YOU WANT THE REST, BE SURE TO EMAIL ADMIN@BETTING-ANALYST.COM AND INQUIRE ABOUT SUBSCRIPTION PACKAGES Starting pitchers are Kyle Gibson for the hosts and Kevin Gausman for the visitors. Kyle Gibson is coming off 2 subpar outings and there have been some troubling signs brewing as it appears teams are either figuring him out or his stuff is degrading. The Orioles are still one of the worst hitting teams in the league and largely undisciplined at the plate but we feel they should have a chance to get their hits here against a pitcher that appears vulnerable at the moment. On the other side, Kevin Gausman should have better luck than Dylan Bundy did yesterday as Gausman is better equipped to deal with the many left handed bats in the Twins lineup. Gausman has the better platoon splits and frustrated these same Twins back in late March. The Twins bullpen is excellent and should hold the advantage but the Orioles' relievers appeared sharp at least yesterday and we believe Gausman should last deep into the game anyway. In any case, we don't see the hosts as prohibitive as favourites as the oddsmakers and believe this is much closer to 50/50!
Much better yesterday - Going with this for a free Premium bet. To get the other five, you can sign up! ——— Donna Vekic enjoyed a solid first round win over a subdued Sloane Stephens. In the second she did what was expected by beating Rebecca Peterson in two close sets. That means the pretty Croatian is breaking new ground by getting into the third round, but it doesn’t mean she’s going to run down Yanina Wickmayer. The girl from Belgium might not always exude confidence, but she’s looked stable in beating both Petkovic and Barthel. Their is a chance she can build on that here, and even if not this could be a scrappy match that goes much closer than the betting suggests!
WORLD CUP is back - We didn’t know which match to add to the site for free, but this one had more text so here you are ————— In the last round, France and Argentina (4-3) defied logic to make a very entertaining game. With that said, their was a total of 8 shots on target and seven of then finished in the net. The other thing is France scored an early penalty and that probably helped to make the match more open. To be analytical about that last match, we can safely say that Les Bleus impressed more than their opponent. However, Didier Deschamps won’t have been happy with his defence, since they were often left exposed. We can be sure that the coach will want to get the back line working well today, and that of course could reduce the forwards intensity. If the Oscars introduce a category for ‘’faking fouls’’, then Luis Suarez is home and dry. It’s really hard to understand what’s going on in the mind of the Barcelona player, since he spends more time on the floor than on his two feet. With that in mind, we thought it particularly appropriate to check out who was going to be the match referee (Nestor Pitana). From what we have seen in previous rounds, the Argentinian is by far the best ref at this world cup and he won’t be buying into fakes! So we have established that the ref won’t be buying into any bullshit, and the other thing is Edison Cavani is almost certainly out. The PSG forward returned to some light training yesterday, so it would probably be unwise to rush him back for this. And, with that in mind, we expect an already impregnable Uruguay to put up a tighter defence. Before conceding against Portugal (2-1). La Celeste hadn’t conceded a goal in 7 matches. Because of their tightness, this team are often called the Atletico Madrid of international football. And, that’s hardly surprising with centre back Diego Godin and Jose Gimenez coming from the Spanish club. We thought about betting under for this match, but we would have wanted positive odds at the 2 goal line. We see value in taking Uruguay with +0.5 over 90 minutes, because France are likely to invest less in attack and a scoreline like 0-0 wouldn’t surprise.
Here is a premium bet on us - Johanna Konta leads head to heads 2-1, and she’s going to have big home support. However, Dominika Cibulkova can be a really tough competitor, and she comes into this on the back of a strong display in the first round. The other thing we like about the Slovakian is she won’t be deterred by a crowd, and she’s the type of player who grows into a tournament. Dominika was really focused in beating Alize Cornet, and it was noticeable that she picked it up in the second set. Last but not least, konta is a player that tends to drag matches out, thus the +4 looks mighty attractive!
We have four racing bets today, and we really like this one we are giving for free. If you want to join the full service the price is €100 p/M - firstname.lastname@example.org ———COOKING FAT is five pounds below his last winning mark. Pauline Robson’s seven year old probably needed his recent run, and best of all he’s going with first time blinkers. That should help Brian Hughes mount travel better, and so should stepping up to three miles. The ground wouldn’t be an issue, and he’s the type to do well on a tight track like this.