Starting pitchers are Gerrit Cole for the hosts and Michael Fulmer for the visitors. It has been a tremendous breakout season for Gerrit Cole in his first year with the Astros but after a torrid start, we are beginning to see some of his flaws come to the surface, most noticeably the control issues. We do feel Cole is headed for some midseason regression but he gets a struggling Tigers team that's one of the worst hitting teams against right handers and draws the free pass just 6.9% of the time, 4th worst in the league. On the other side, Michael Fulmer has been highly inconsistent but we generally see him at his best against the top teams and Fulmer has been averaging over 6.2 IP per start over his last 6 starts, thereby reducing exposure to the poor Tigers bullpen. The Astros are one of the top hitting teams in baseball but they are a bit right handed heavy and should provide a somewhat favourable matchup to Fulmer who owns a 3.30 xFIP against right handers on the road. Both pitchers also do well to limit the home runs and last but not least, the Astros bullpen is the best in baseball by just about every metric. We believe the moneyline is worth a punt for the more ambtitious but for the purposes of this bet, we'll play it safe with the total!
Go on then - We will give you one for free. However, don’t think this sets a trend for the future, because we are cutting back on Free syndicate bets. If you are serious about betting take our 5.5 month offer to the end of the year for €700, or pay €250 per month . email@example.com ———It’s the start of a new Danish Superliga season, and today see’s a very interesting match between last seasons fifth Aalborg and eighth placed Sonderyske. If this was a major European league we would start with all the transfer news. However, the Danish Superliga starts earlier than most, and the last season was only completed six weeks ago. While Danish clubs could do some early business, most are likely to start with the same squads has last season. The hosts Sonderjyske come into this on the back of winning three from four friendlies, and one was against Midtjylland. However, we should bare in mind that international players were not involved, so results of such should be taken with a pinch of salt. Claus Nørgaard’s side ended the last campaign with an 8-7-11 (31 points), and only 16 of their 31 points were taken at home. A closer inspection of previous seasons show us that the hosts tend to finish with a lower table position at home than they do away. In fact, if we take aggregate points over the past four seasons, Sonderjyske have 82 at home compared to 87 away. On that note, todays opponent Aalborg won this fixture (0-1) last season. Furthermore, they managed to hold out with 10 men from the 76th minute, and it’s also noticeable that the visitors are unbeaten in their last five matches at Sydbank Park. AaB last won the championship five years back in 13/14, and since then they finished 5-5-8-5. Other stats from last season include the visitors took the same amount of points on the road compared to at home. They also conceded just 27 goals which, was the second lowest in the league. And, from them only 13 goals conceded from 13 in away matches. AaB are without a handful of players for this opener, and they include three from the last meeting with Sonderjyske. For the record, centre back Kasper Pederson, right back Patrick Kristensen and playmaker Frederik Børsting are the players we are referring to. On top of that coach Wieghorst won’t have Edison Flores. While the hosts haven’t announced missing players, we are expecting four absentees. that sort of balances things out with regards to team strength, so now its more of picking the winner on the facts we have at hand. Take AAB to get a three pointer, albeit lets cover ourselves with the draw no bet. That’s a good policy with the visitor, since last season the drew 12/26! BET: AALBORG +/-0 (draw no bet)
We have seven racing bets ranging from 3/1 to 10/1 today. Here is one we are giving for free, the rest are for premium bet subscribers. I would normally say get on board by joining - but we are not taking anyone else into the club so that could be hard!! ———Here’s hoping that Rachel Richardson gives the selection a better ride than she did SHERIFF GARRETT yesterday. To be fair she’s not a bad jockey and in these 5 furlong sprints all they have to do is point them in the right direction. EXCESSABLE certainly knows how to win and he’s six pounds lower than when winning this last season. We are further propelled into this bet by strong stable form, and the fast ground is another bonus.
Starting pitchers are Wei-Yin Chen for the hosts and Jake Arrieta for the visitors. Perhaps it was a bit too ambitious to back Chen against Max Scherzer on the road in what ended up as a lopsided 18-4 win for the Nationals although to be fair, these kind of results can be expected on a 3/1 shot. Nevertheless, much of what we laid out in that game still stands as Chen's velocity is still noticeably higher and consequently his swing and miss rates have increased as well. Chen is also much more comfortable at pitcher-friendly Marlins Park and he will face a Phillies team that isn't loaded with left handed bats of which Chen is significantly better against, but does struggle against southpaws and 2 of their better hitters Odubel Herrera and Nick Williams both hitting from the left side. On the other side, Jake Arrieta isn't the Cy Young calibre pitcher he once was but he has made ends meet with a high groundball rate and managing walks and home runs. The Marlins lineup doesn't have much firepower and we imagine Arrieta shouldn't have too many issues especially given the venue. Bullpens are a bit worrisome but we believe the starters can do enough here to keep this under 8 runs!
Starting pitchers are Madison Bumgarner for the hosts and Edwin Jackson for the visitors. Some of what we said about Bumgarner came to fruition in his last start against the Cardinals as he picked up the win but put forth a pedestrian effort allowing 4 runs over 5.1 innings of work. Bumgarner still carries an impressive 3.09 ERA but his xFIP of 4.23 is indicative of some issues, namely his diminished velocity that's led to his lowest strikeout rate since his rookie season. Bumgarner faces a good hitting Athletics team and one that can hit for power as well as we believe Bumgarner is even more susceptible to the long ball now even in pitcher friendly AT&T Park. On the other side, Edwin Jackson continues to pile up the innings in different uniforms but the well-traveled journeyman simply doesn't have much left in the tank in our opinion and his 2.45 ERA is mostly smoke and mirrors aided by a .212 BABIP in addition to a high strand rate and a small sample size as well. Bullpens are mediocre for both sides but this total is low based on our opinion of the starters!
Starting pitchers are Carlos Martinez for the hosts and Matt Harvey for the visitors. Carlos Martinez continued his good form returning from the DL as he threw 7 strong innings in his last outing against the Giants. Martinez has now won 3 consecutive starts, allowing 5 runs over 19 innings combined and a stingy 18/3 K/BB ratio during that span. This is much of what we expected from the hard throwing right hander and early season control issues appear to be sorted out. The Reds do bring a good hitting team with more than a few left handed bats capable of hitting for power but Martinez has already blanked them twice early in the season and the bad outing in June we can give some leeway as it was in Great American Ballpark and perhaps with his lat already bothering him at the time. On the other side, Matt Harvey is enjoying a resurgence of sorts with the Reds as the former Mets' breakout star has been in blistering form of late with 4 consecutive outings allowing 2 ER or less and a 18/3 K/BB ratio during that span. Harvey also hasn't allowed a home run in his last 29 innings of work and we've seen his velocity continue to creep upwards hitting 97 on the gun with regularity in recent weeks. The Cardinals too have a dangerous lineup but lack left handed batters and Harvey's splits against right handers is excellent with an xFIP of 3.90. Bullpens aren't reliable for either side but we see an old fashioned pitcher's duel here that limits exposure to the relievers for both sides! Total is a tick too high in our opinion!
Starting pitchers are Jake Odorizzi for the hosts and Nathan Eovaldi for the visitors. Nathan Eovaldi has become a hot commodity on the trade market as he's blazed through 8 starts for the Rays with a nearly identical ERA (3.35) and xFIP (3.37). On the other side of Tommy John surgery, Eovaldi's arm strength hasn't shown any diminishment as of yet and his secondary pitches are generating fantastic contact management numbers. Nevertheless, we can hardly find any advantage for the visitors as the Twins bring the better lineup and have more and better left handed bats to exploit the platoon splits. Jake Odorizzi hasn't had the same success as Eovaldi thus far and his L/R splits are worse than Eovaldi's but Odorizzi has shown to be better at home and faces a much weaker Rays lineup. Odorizzi is also facing his former team and we believe he will have a little extra tonight as pitchers often do in this situation. Regarding bullpens, the Rays have done admirably despite gutting their roster and still own a league average group of relievers but the Twins' bullpen has quietly moved up the ranks as arguably the 3rd best in the AL after the Yankees and Twins. Hosts as outsiders are a must bet in our opinion!
Starting pitchers are Anibal Sanchez for the hosts and Zack Godley for the visitors. Godley has been unable to follow up his promising 2017 campaign and while advanced metrics indicate he hasn't been as bad as his 4.80 ERA would indicate, Godley is clearly less comfortable away from home where his xFIP is a full run higher and even less so against left handed bats. The Braves sport a left handed heavy lineup with 3 of their top hitters in Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis and Ozzie Albies all hitting from the left side and in a park that favours left handed bats, we see this as a most unfavourable situation for the right hander. On the other side, Anibal Sanchez has been a pleasant surprise for the Braves as he enters this game with a 2.72 ERA but we can tell you that a lot of this has been smoke and mirrors aided by a low BABIP and high strand rate. The Diamondbacks struggled miserably against right handers early in the season but a lot of this was a result of an extremely low BABIP and we're seeing some positive regression in recent weeks. It's worth noting that some of the advanced numbers indicating the Diamondbacks as a poor offensive team haven't properly factored in the humidour effect yet and are penalizing them a bit too much given their ballpark's history. In any case, we see them as one of the better hitting teams at least in the National League and one that Sanchez won't find to be an easy out. The Diamondbacks bullpen is about league average but the Braves' relievers are still among the worst and in any case, we believe there's enough offensive firepower on both sides to warrant a total of 9 flat!
Starting pitchers are Alex Cobb for the hosts and Cole Hamels for the visitors. Cole Hamels is putting forth his best effort for his club as one of the top pitchers on the trade market but sadly, his last 3 starts have gone much as we expected his season to go for the aging veteran. Hamels simply does not have the velocity or the sharp secondary pitches anymore to even be a league average starter in our opinion and we believe his last start against the Tigers where Hamels couldn't make it out of the first inning allowing 7 runs albeit with only 3 being earned, was indicative of where he is at the moment. Hamels faces a struggling Orioles team but the conditions are ideal for the hosts facing a southpaw and one that's susceptible to the long ball in one of the most home run friendly stadiums to boot. On the other side, Alex Cobb continues his miserable season as his ERA sits at 6.67 but we maintain that he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers this year and his last start against the Twins encapsulates just this as Cobb cruised through 4 innings before allowing 2 runs in the 5th only for the wheels to completely come off in the 6th inning due to some bad luck with some help from the bullpen as well. Nevertheless, Cobb is much more suited to pitching at Camden Yards and the left handed heavy Rangers lineup shouldn't bother him more than it would for other right handed pitchers. The Rangers do have the better bullpen but we don't believe the advantage is enough to warrant the hosts as outsiders!
PREMIUM BET ——— In the QF, Camila Giorgi had Serena Williams on the ropes for most of the match. However, the Italian couldn’t handle it mentally, and that was ultimately the difference. On a positive, note Serena proved that she could come through a tough three setter, albeit she will be relieved that their was a days rest in between. It’s somewhat surprising that Julia Goerges could get so deep into the tournament, because she started Wimbledon with a negative balance on grass. Goerges also came from a set down to beat Kiki Bertens in the quarter final, albeit the third was very easy. What’s noticeable is Julia Goerges claimed a really hard fought win over Barbora Strycova in the third round here. That in itself was proof she’s mentally tougher now than a few years back. In fact, winning a few tournaments has made the German a much more confident player, and she’s certainly going to make a big effort here. Serena is without doubt the best women’s player of all time, and winning this tournament six times tells us she’s the Queen of Wimbledon. However, if we are being realistic, she’s had to beat very little on her way to the semi, and when she did step up in grade all three sets were needed. Julia has grown into this tournament. Her brain is working and the courts slowing down give her a better chance than normal. We can’t say the German will see it through, but she should at least go very close.
Here is a great value bet for tonight, it's a second PREMIUM freebie —— They say a good test for Epsom is running at Brighton or Lingfield. Last time out BERKSHIRE SPIRIT was just touched off by a 2/5 shot at the first mentioned track, but he didn’t shirk the issue. If we include jockeys allowance Andrew Balding’s runner receives a valuable 22 pounds from the jolly JUNEAU. To be honest we don’t even imagine the latter bering the main danger, because he’s up in the weights and was beaten off a lower mark two races back!
We have seven racing bets for today, here is one of two we are giving for free ———Richard Hannon has booked the services of top amateur jockey Simon Walker for his runner SERGIO LEONE. The three year old has every chance on the book, but from our experience betting Hannon runners at short odds is a poor investment. OUR METHA BRIDGE might be better on the all weather, but he’s compensated by being 14 pounds lower on turf. Surely he can win a race like this under such circumstances.