We are gearing up to the US open, we hope you are enjoying our free Cincinnati ————— One rule of professional betting is not to take recent form too literally. We wanted to mention that because Camilla Giorgi has impressed this week in beating Arruabarrena, Kuzmova and Sevastova, while Madison Keys needed all three sets to get past Bethanie Mattek-Sands. Nevertheless, their is more to this bet on Giorgi than just that. Afterall, while head to heads give Keys (3-2) a slight advantage, Giorgi has clearly been holding herself with the higher ranked American. Add to that Keys has been struggling for fitness, conditions are slower than she would like, and her record at this tournament isn’t a good one! Go with the Italian at decent odds.
If recent form is anything to go by, the French girl should cover ——— We were a bit surprised to see Ekaterina Makarova blitz Ana Bogdan in the first round, albeit her opponent is known for bouts of inconsistency. To be fair Makarova did serve well in heavy condotions, and she will be very reliant on that side of her game again today. With that said, Alize Cornet leads her opponent 3-0 on head to heads. The French girl is in the form of her life, and after qualifying in great fashion she went on to wear down Jelena Ostapenko. A recent tournament win in Gstaad appears to have done the 26 year old the world of good, and beating Kerber in Montreal was another step forwards.
Bet number two, and also a 17:00 central european time start ———Aryna Sabalenka made two finals this year, interestingly they were on clay (Lugano) and grass (Eastbourne). We say that because the 20 year old is clearly better on hard courts (71.7% win), so it’s no surprise to see her doing well since arriving on the other side of the Atlantic. In fact, Sabalenka managed to get the better of both Bogdan and Wozniacki in Canada, and she might have been feeling fatigued by the time she lost to Mertens (three sets). A hard fought first round win over Jo Konta tells us Sabalenka is super confident, so she must have a chance against what we consider to be an average Pliskova. The Czech girl did get a first round win over Wozniacki, but her opponent was well off the pace.
Yesterdays results didn’t cover us in glory, so lets hope for a big hit back. Today we have some really decent odds, here is our first of five bets———We often see WTA players needing three sets, when really they should have got the job done in two. Take Elise Mertens against both Zhang and Sabalenka in Montreal, she won both third sets to a bagel (6-0). This lack of focus of course makes it more difficult to bet these matches. With that said, Mertens won her first round match here in straight sets. And, prior to Montreal. 15 of her last 17 wins had been in two sets! Rebecca Peterson qualified well, and then she beat Siniakova in the first round proper. However, we feel that she was given that match by a nervous opponent, and she will need to step it up against Mertens.
Starting pitchers are Austin Gomber for the hosts and Jeremy Hellickson for the visitors. Jeremy Hellickson predictably hasn't been able to maintain the excellent form he showed early in the season but we believe this is an ideal matchup for the right hander against a right handed heavy Cardinals lineup in a generous stadium for a pitcher that's lost a tick and relies mostly on his command. Hellickson still has a pristine walk rate of just 1.82 batters per 9 innings and while his strikeout numbers are expectedly low, he should pose a nice change of pace against a power hitting Cardinals team that's faced 2 southpaws in a row. On the other side, Austin Gomber is making his 4th start in his big league career and while Cardinals fans can be cautiously optimistic with his 2-0 record and 3.45 ERA, he hasn't shown the best control with a walk rate of 4.45 BB/9. The Nationals do have a lot of left handed batters in the lineup regardless of who's starting and this should give Gomber a slight advantage but the Nationals are also one of the more patient teams in the league and have a hitter friendly umpire behind the plate tonight. In any case, Gomber can hardly be expected to last deep into the game and while Hellickson can't really be either, the Nationals have the clear edge in the bullpen and should be favoured here in our opinion.
BET IS VOID DUE TO PITCHING CHANGE Starting pitchers are Burch Smith for the hosts and Marco Estrada for the visitors. Marco Estrada enters this game with an ERA approaching 5.00 and an xFIP even worse at 5.40 but he does get a favourable matchup here against a dreadful hitting Royals team in a pitcher's park that suits his flyball oriented pitching. While Estrada's velocity is no longer there, he does mix it up rather well and this should match up well against a Royals team that lacks power and plate discipline. On the other side, Burch Smith is again the starter for the Royals on bullpen day and while he's been given a longer leash in recent starts, we have very little faith in Smith despite an xFIP (4.80) that's over 2 runs lower than his ERA (6.97). Smith walks entirely too many hitters at 4.45 BB/9 and his home run rate is a dismal 2.08 HR/9 and these are 2 areas that the Blue Jays excel at against right handed pitchers. Bullpens are poor for both sides but we would rate the Jays' relievers marginally better as the Royals' bullpen has been an utter disaster and the worst in the league.
Starting pitchers are Vince Velasquez for the hosts and Nathan Eovaldi for the visitors. Vince Velasquez has done well to keep the home runs down this year as his HR rate of 0.99 HR/9 is a little over half the rate from a season ago (1.88 HR/9). Still, Velasquez's walk numbers aren't convincing, allowing 3.44 BB/9 and while his strikeout numbers are up, Velasquez is facing a Red Sox team that's on an historic pace offensively and is the best hitting team against right handed pitching. On the other side, Nathan Eovaldi has clearly figured some things out in a Red Sox uniform but his home run rate of 1.45 HR/9 is alarming especially as his HR/FB ratio isn't quite as high as one would expect. The Phillies have clubbed 111 home runs against right handers this season, tied with the Orioles for the 8th highest mark in the league and their 57 at home against right handers is the 3rd highest mark for a NL team. While bullpens are fairly reliable for both sides, we believe home runs can be expected here against 2 pitchers that have been prone to the long ball and in a ballpark that favours them. We have this at 9 flat!
Starting pitchers are Jordan Zimmermann for the hosts and Carlos Rodon for the visitors. Carlos Rodon's 2.61 ERA looks nice but he has been incredibly lucky with batted balls as his BABIP thus far is at .207 and his strand rate at 81.7% should see some negative regression as well. It would be one thing if the White Sox had a sound defense but in fact they are one of the worst with the 3rd most errors committed in the league with 87 and the 4th worst fielding percentage as well. In addition, the Tigers are night and day when comparing their numbers against right handers to left handers so the southpaw should certainly be a welcome sight. On the other side, Jordan Zimmermann appears to be running out of steam and even his 6.1 innings of 2 run ball wasn't too convincing as he managed just 1 strikeout and had a game xFIP of 5.19. We believe there's really nowhere else to go but down for Zimmermann and even a poor hitting team like the White Sox should have their chances here in our opinion. If anything, the Tigers bullpen is still unreliable and the White Sox's relievers aren't much better. We believe this total is a half run too low!
This is a free bet. If you want goals at a football match, buy a season ticket to watch the Galaxy. Afterall, spectators have seen 86 in 24 games (3.59), and their have been 47 from 12 at the Stubhub in Carson. However, while the likes of Ibrahimovic (15) and Alessandrini (8) have been scoring for fun, the Galaxy also concede plenty. Furthermore, their main providers Alessandrini and Dos Santos struggle for match fitness, so their is every chance Colorado Rapids can take something here. In fact, that's what the visitors just did in the recent reverse match (2-1), and they have certainly found a little form. In fact, they also beat the Earthquake since! Our advice, take the visitors +1 at positive odds has it provides insurance!
This is a late start for Europeans, but who cares if you are winning! ——— We were a little disappointed when Elina Svitolina lost last weeks match to Sloane Stephens, because she looked a bit lethargic. The only thing we can think is the Ukrainian was a bit short of match fitness, because she hadn’t played for five weeks going in to that tournament. Other than that she’s ranked 7 in the world, she’s 32-10 on the year and 21-5 on hard court. During the current campaign Svitolina has already won Brisbane, Dubai and Rome, and in 2015 she made the semi final here. Svetlana Kuznetsova played a good tournament to win Washington, and she made the QF of this for the last two years. However, the 33 year old Russian is clearly not the player she once was, and to be analytical she didn’t beat much in Washington. Add to that her YTD is very average, and her opponent is a class act.
Amazing - Some people are copying and pasting our tips for Fantasy Sports betting ——— It’s sick!! —————Stop press, Agnieszka Radwanska leads head to heads 7-0. And, while those matches came at a better time for the 29 year old, the fact is she won them all in straight sets. Their is no doubt Aga has struggled with fitness over the past few years, and she’ might never be the same player again. Nevertheless, during the current campaign she’s beaten players such has Kvitova, Ostapenko and Halep, and with all due respect they are better than todays opponent Karolina Pliskova. We have always said that Pliskova is a one trick pony. And, although she’s a former number one, that was more down to misfiring opponents. In fact, Karolina is one of those players who can hammer poor opposition, but she’s got a very poor record against top players. Aga has won nearly three times the prize money of her opponent, and she’s an all round better player. If the Polish girl is fit, we would fancy her to beat last years semi finalist.
This is the other early start we have today ——— We have a lot of respect for playing mother Tatjana Maria. Afterall, she’s one of the hardest workers on tour and she will give it her best. With that said, the 30 year old German doesn’t have a great record in the main draw, and she’s almost certainly beatable. Allie Kiick made the qtr’s of Washington, and she’s claimed two good scalps here. The 23 year old has plenty more to offer, and her 36/16 suggests she’s the player to beat here. Take the exciting Kiick, she’s got the potential to rank much higher