Have it on us - Everyone will tell you that Germany is a tournament team, and history shows that this is very much true. With that said, the current German side is hardly filled with talent and they looked awful in recent friendlies. In fact, beating Saudi Arabia 2-1 in the last friendly looks particularly weak following that teams annihilation by Russia (5-0) in the first round. And, you can take it from us that they were under extra pressure from the media and supporters following defeats to Austrai (2-1) and Brazil (0-1). To be fair the Germans usually figure it out, albeit they struggled in the last Euro Championships. It’s more of a question whether you believe your eyes or history, but in Mexico they are facing an enterprising and tough opponent. The last time these two met Germany won a confed cup match 4-1. Since then El Tricolor have qualified for this tournament with the minimum of fuss, and they are usually fully primed for their first match of the world cup. Germany are too short in our book.
We are betting both WTA finals today, but we won’t be bothering with Birmingham of Mallorca qualifications. However, we will be having a big go at both those tournaments from tomorrows first round. If you want to subscribe to our paid service get in touch firstname.lastname@example.org —— The locals will be out to support Johanna Konta, but we don’t believe that will be enough. In fact, we made Ashleigh Barty a fair bit shorter in the betting, since we believe she’s got a lot in her favour. Both girls have managed to win their four matches in straight sets, so that’s a good omen going forwards. However, we’ve been more impressed with Barty, and we believe she’s got the better game on grass. The Australians big serve is always going to be a weapon, albeit she didn’t need it to beat Osaka. And, while Jo beat her at this tournament last season, the level of the 22 year olds game improved.
Take this one for free - Willie Mullins knows how to improve ex flat horses, but his hurdling debutant SHOULDA LIED appears very average. In fact, the four year old ran nine times on the level but failed to win. Furthermore, he’s rated just 57 in that sphere, so the 7/4 is very short. TOUCH BASE could improve a little, but he’s bred for easier ground than this and a rating of 105 is nothing. FIRST CLASS TICKET ran below par at Tipperary, but prior to that he had run really well at Sligo. Maybe he didn’t stay in his last race, so dropping back could be key. Other than that he’s got the best hurdling form on offer, and conditions should suit!
There WC bets for subscribers - You too can get all for just €77, email@example.com —————After finishing second to Poland in qualifying, the Danish Dynamite needed a play-off to get into the main tournament. Furthermore, recent friendlies against South American opposition send out mixed signals. In their last warm-up match, the Danes did manage to beat Mexico (2-0). It should be noted that Åge Hareide’s team took the game more serious than their opponents. In fact, Mexico used many bench players and their coach was clearly experimenting. Prior to that, Denmark needed Panama (1-0) to be reduced to ten men before getting a late winner. And, the 0-0 with both Chile and Sweden didn’t tell us much that we didn’t already know. With regards to players, Eriksen (Tottenham), Schmeichel (Leicester), Kjær (Sevilla) and Andreas Christensen (Chelsea) belong on the international stage. However, the Danish strike force appears well short of the required level, but we won’t go into that! Los Incas also had to come through the play-off route against New Zealand. Nevertheless, they ended the campaign strongly under former Argentinian international striker Ricardo Gareca. In fact, Peru arrive here on the back of a 15 match unbeaten run, and one of those matches was a big odds 0-0 in Argentina. Warm-up wins against Croatia (2-0), Iceland (3-1) and Scotland (2-0) suggest the South American’s should be very competitive here. Players such has Paolo Guerrero and Jefferson Farfan should be able to give them a cutting edge up front, and that’s why they are a must bet here!
Four WTA bets lined up for today, to get them all sign up for our subscription service. For just €100 per month you could be part of this highly profitable service - ADMIN@BETTING-ANALYST.COM ———— . Last season this pair met twice on grass, winning one each. Both of those matches were tough three setters, and Konta needed a 10-8 at last years Wimbledon. It’s probably fair to suggest that both had been struggling coming into this tournament, but they have been playing well here. With regards to Vekic, we thought the highlight of her week was beating Lapko. With that said, she whacked down 11 aces against Taylor and it’s that which got her through. Konta has been fully focused and it’s easy to understand why she’s favourite here. However, we can’t see why she’s so short, and we want to get with the Croatian at positive odds and +3.5 games.
We have some big bets lined up for today, including what we consider to be a solid 8/1 shot - If you want all five, join our paid sub service. If you are Freemium hunting, here is one : Ronan McNally has done really well with his UK jaunts with THE JAM MAN. However, the h’capper appeared to catch up with the five year old when he was beaten at Perth, and he’s up another 7 pounds here. Furthermore, his usual claiming jockey is replaced by Brian Hughes, thus more extra weight. KICK ON DOTTIE is in great form and she comes here on the back of winning back to back races. Her 8 pound penalty is mostly offset by Bily Garrity, but for the winner we prefer the long travelling SECOND TIME AROUND. Alan King’s runner looks really well h’capped, and he should enjoy this gaff track.
Starting pitchers are Alex Cobb for the hosts and Wei-Yin Chen for the visitors. Chen is making his homecoming to Baltimore where he had some success but he is a much different pitcher now and much more prone to the long ball. The Orioles have predominantly right handed bats and should tee off on Chen who has only been effective against lefties this year and Cobb is much better than his bloated ERA would suggest and his ground ball heavy pitching should help him in one of the most hitter friendly ballparks in the league.
ONE MONTH FULL WTA TENNIS TIPS JUST €100 - ADMIN@BETTING-ANALYST.COM - It’s hard to imagine the big two favourites (Konta + Barty) encountering problems today, and we wouldn’t want to go near the Vekic vs Barthel match. That means we are limited to just one bet in Nottingham, and that’s Mihaela Buzarnescu to get within the h’cap against Naomi Osaka. The Romanian is one of those players who is a late developer, and on that note she just made it to a career high 30. To be fair the 30 year old spent most of her career playing ITF tennis, and that paid of with a total of 56 tournament wins. While the Romanian needed three sets to beat her opponents to date, we don’t believe that experience will have been a bad thing. Afterall, she’s getting better on the surface all the time, and with the grass wearing down the slower game should suit her better than Osaka. Sure the Japanese girl has quality, but we still doubt she aims to peak here. We want to take +4!
GET ALL WORLD CUP BETS FOR JUST €77 ADMIN@BETTING-ANALYST.COM - HERE IS ONE OF THREE WE ARE MAKING TODAY FOR FREE - Spain don’t have a particularly good (recent) record against their neighbours. In fact, Portugal won two of their last four meetings, albeit Spain won their last match in the world cup (2010). If we go all the way back to 1964 it’s Portugal who come out top on head to heads (4-2), although the most popular result has been draw (7). Portugal will attempt to become the fourth nation to win back to back European Championship and World cup tournaments. Other stats which suggest Fernando Santos’s side will be an hard team to beat include the Seleção only lost one of their last nine WC games. And, then their is the fact Spain managed to win just two of their las twelve world cup opening matches. A late change in manager might not by an hinderance to a mature Spanish side, but what could is age. Many of the players starting for the 2010 winners are past their sell by date, and it’s that which suggests they are beatable. The Seleção are often talked up has a one man team, but to be fair Cristiano Ronaldo has dropped the ego when playing for his country. It wasn’t an accident that a well disciplined team won the European championships, and more of the same would give them a chance this evening. Best option is Portugal with half a goal start (double chance)
We didn’t plan of giving a racing freebie, but we feel charitable so here goes - Full service €100 per month firstname.lastname@example.org - PASSING CALL has six second places and no wins next to her name. Her jockey Wayne Hutchinson isn’t exactly the toughest, and has such she’s worth taking on at short odds. PASSING DREAM won well on her hurdling debut and she should certainly improve further. However, the track she won had no resemblance to this and being penalised will make her cause harder. We have to go with Colin Tizzard’s 4 year old hurdling debutant EMPRIENTE RECONCE. While the 4 year old found very little on her UK debut she was at least strongly fancied for that race. !77 days off the track should have given the trainer time to get things right, so the 10/3 is certainly worth having!
Starting pitchers are Reynaldo Lopez for the hosts and Mike Fiers for the visitors. It's admirable that Mike Fiers has carved out a major league career but the fact remains that he's a league average pitcher at best with average stuff gives up entirely too many home runs. The White Sox aren't tearing the cover off the ball but against right handed pitching, they are much better than the Tigers who rank near the bottom of the league in nearly all categories in that regard. Reynaldo Lopez is almost defying expectations as he enters with an xFIP of 5.45 which is over 2 runs higher than his 3.26 ERA. Nevertheless, Lopez does have some extreme peripherals and has one of the best soft contact rates in the league and a bottom 30 hard contact rate as well. Lopez also faces a Tigers team that is dead last in drawing the free pass and recently lost their best hitter and clubhouse leader Miguel Cabrera for the season. Bullpen is firmly in favour of the hosts as well and we believe they should be at maximum 1.7!
Starting pitchers are Chad Kuhl for the hosts and Matt Harvey for the visitors. Matt Harvey enters this game with a bloated 5.97 ERA but it bears mentioning that he has been his worst at home and on the road, his xFIP is a respectable 4.14 and is even below 4.00 if the start at Coors Field is discounted. Harvey also has major issues against left handed batters with an xFIP of 5.47 compared to 3.62 against righties and the Pirates should have some dangerous LHB in the lineup but Harvey should benefit from the pitcher-friendly venue and has done well to reduce the amount of balls in the air on the road where he has been burned by a high HR/FB ratio. On the other side, Chad Kuhl is similar to Harvey in that he has struggled against left handed batters but he hasn't pitched as well at home and his GB/FB ratio is at a disappointing 0.68. The Pirates have the better bullpen on paper but we have very little faith in their relievers at the moment while the Reds' bullpen has been in terrific form and have the better closer of the two in our opinion. In any case, we believe the visitors are a must bet at these odds!