Imagine someone throwing an equally weighted coin and offering odds of 2.10 tails and 1.90 heads. Ask yourself this, would you bet tails for value or would you bet heads because it’s favourite?. What if a well known professional tipster gives out a pick at odds 4.00 and weight of money moves the line to 3.20. Would you still make the bet at those lower odds?.
It’s simple, if you can bet at over the odds you will win money, and if you continually bet below the odds you will lose. Since their is absolutely no advantage with our coin example, you should clearly be betting tails at 2.10. However, mug punters would probably bet the lower odds because it’s favourite and psychologically they believe it has a better chance of winning.
The second scenario with fallen odds is a more question to answer, because to do that you would still have to fathom whether their is value to be had. However, as a rule of thumb you shouldn’t be taking much lower odds, unless of course circumstances have changed.
Imagine you are walking home one night and you see a jacket in a shop window with 50% off. The shop is closed so you make a mental note to go back and purchase the jacket the next day. However, when you arrive at the shop the price is back to it’s original, will you still make the purchase?
For me the answer would be a certain no, but i might still consider a price reduction of 40%. Afterall, i had already made the effort to return to the shop and it’s still a fair deal. What i’m trying to say is everything has a price, and it’s for you to define the cut-off line.
We have to accept it’s not always possible to catch odds at their peak, but it’s your absolute duty to get the best price you can. Never accept vastly reduced odds is our message, and make sure you say ahead of the game by watching the market unfold. You can do this by logging into a a platform such has an odds checking portal, while at the same time tracking on the betting exchanges.
When a person follows a well known tipster we would recommend quick action once the bet is released. However, if the odds have already gone, keep tracking the market has the chances are they will readjust at some stage. We say that because people betting contra should start taking the bigger odds, and that should at least get you nearer the original price.
We would like to reiterate that betting exchanges are an excellent tool for tracking market odds, and for those more sophisticated sign up to platforms such has Mollybet or Stag. The latter let you bet with circa 10 bookmakers from a single click platform, so you are going to scrape better odds and be able to bet at reduced juice.
Continually take into consideration new dynamics such has latest news or conditions. For example, if it rains heavily before or during a football game goal expectancy could drop. If it becomes known a key player won’t be starting, adjust your odds accordingly. At the same time, we would like to reiterate markets often over react, and a stampede can cause odds to go artificially short.
If a bet you plan making is drifting try to find the reason why, but at the same time bare in mind that at some stage better odds will start contracting again. Basically, the opposite could be occurring in that the stampede is going against your planned bet, thus extra value is created.
From our stance, the bigger the odds discrepancy the bigger our bet.